SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Brandon Pfaadt

Brandon Pfaadt

RHP / RHB · Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

Thu @ 5:16 PM

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No other lines for this player
Brandon Pfaadt

Brandon Pfaadt

PRHP / RHBEarned Runs 3.5D-

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals · Thu @ 5:16 PM

Opp K Rank: 5th(20.6% K)

D-🚫
Very Weak
PrizePicksO +100BetrO -137
AZ logoAZ
ProbO 12%U 88%

Best O +100

Best U —

2 books ·PrizePicksBetr

Real Earned Runs Line · The Odds API

3.5
O +100U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 1.8, 17 GP ·PrizePicksBetr

Game Log — Earned Runs

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 17/17 games
Pick GradeD-
Line 3.5
0
2
0
1
1
2
1
0
2
2
5/12@ TEX
5/17@ COL
5/20vs SF
5/23vs COL
5/29@ SEA
6/3vs LAD
6/30vs SF
7/6@ SD
7/11@ LAD
7/18vs STL

Dashed line = line 3.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

3
0.3
1
1.7
1.7
1
5.3
5
5.3
5.3
05-1205-1705-2005-2305-2906-0306-3007-0607-1107-18
Line
App
Time
3.5
O +100PrizePicks
7/23, 11:32 AM
3.5
O -137Betr
7/23, 11:33 AM

Earned Runs 3.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over+100
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicksBetr

By App

PrizePicks3.5 O +1007/23, 11:32 AM
Betr3.5 O -1377/23, 11:33 AM

Regular Season Averages

D-GRADE
B75PARK-P
Avoid — the real WIS breakdown leans against this sideVery Weak🚫Avoid· 39/100ERWIS

Why this grade

ERWIS (Earned Run Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Earned Runs Over 3.5 pick at 39/100 — 🚫 Avoid. Across the real full season sample, Brandon has cleared the line in 0% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Pitch Arsenal Vulnerability Score (3.8/5), Opponent Lineup Power Score (15.4/22), Weather/Park HR Factor (12.2/20). Weakest real components: Recent Form Score (0.6/15), Command/Traffic Score (0/15).

Pick ConfidenceStrong under signal
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Brandon Pfaadt's own arsenal, next to STL's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

4-Seam Fastball

7 real batters w/ sample

23.4%93.3 mph
0.263

Sinker

7 real batters w/ sample

20.5%93.1 mph
0.283

Curveball

7 real batters w/ sample

18.2%82.2 mph
0.249

Sweeper

7 real batters w/ sample

13.8%84.3 mph
0.276

Cutter

7 real batters w/ sample

12.4%90.3 mph
0.249

Changeup

7 real batters w/ sample

11.8%87 mph
0.278

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Brandon Pfaadt's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.298
OPS.864
K/96.39
WHIP1.52

17 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.210
OPS.589
K/97.07
WHIP1.07

16 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Brandon Pfaadt's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1st.223.281.380.6626.7%19.3%135
2nd.260.349.438.7889.6%15.7%83
3rdsmall sample.382.400.529.9292.9%14.3%35
4th+small sample.000.000.000.0000%0%1

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS +.267 · BA +.159 · K% -5%

Hitters improve the third time through — classic fade signal when sample holds. Based on 135 / 35 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30.204.258.361.6195.8%19.2%120
31–60.297.381.473.8549.5%14.3%84
61–75small sample.281.324.469.7925.9%17.6%34
76+small sample.375.412.438.8495.9%17.6%17

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon Pfaadt
AZ · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026D-
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
JJ Wetherholt
STL · 2B · LHB
JJ Wetherholt
Real career H2H · Wetherholt vs Pfaadt1 real games · 3 PA
3
AB
1
H
0
HR
0
BB
0
K
.333
AVG
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Pfaadt
Stat
Wetherholt
.258
42

BA

Batting average

70
.257
7.1%
73

BB%

Walk rate

67
9.7%
17.3%
29

K%

Strikeout rate

84
15.9%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

43
.278
—
45

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

76
—
—
60

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

90
—
—
15

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

70
—
—
59

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

75
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Busch Stadium

Temperature

82°F

Wind

6 mph

Humidity

40%

Partly Cloudy, 82°F — no notable real weather impact expected.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.