SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams

RHP / LHB · Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

Thu @ 1:11 PM

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Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams

PRHP / LHBEarned Runs 5.5F

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians · Thu @ 1:11 PM

Opp K Rank: 12th(21.6% K)

F🚫
Avoid
PrizePicksO +100
CLE logoCLE
ProbO 10%U 90%

Best O +100

Best U —

1 books ·PrizePicks

Real Earned Runs Line · The Odds API

5.5
O +100U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 2.6, 20 GP ·PrizePicks

Game Log — Earned Runs

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 20/20 games
Pick GradeF
Line 5.5
0
1
3
3
7
2
2
3
2
5
5/22@ PHI
5/27vs WSH
6/3@ NYY
6/8vs NYY
6/17@ MIL
6/22@ CWS
6/28vs SEA
7/3vs CWS
7/9@ MIN
7/18vs PIT

Dashed line = line 5.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

8
7
5.3
5
5
5
5
4.7
7
6
05-2205-2706-0306-0806-1706-2206-2807-0307-0907-18
Line
App
Time
5.5
O +100PrizePicks
7/23, 11:32 AM

Earned Runs 5.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over+100
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicks

By App

PrizePicks5.5 O +1007/23, 11:32 AM

Regular Season Averages

FGRADE
B72PARK-P
Avoid — the real WIS breakdown leans against this sideAvoid🚫Avoid· 32/100ERWIS

Why this grade

ERWIS (Earned Run Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Earned Runs Over 5.5 pick at 32/100 — 🚫 Avoid. Across the real full season sample, Gavin has cleared the line in 10% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Handedness Matchup vs Lineup (10.8/15), Pitcher Damage/Vulnerability Score (19.3/28), Weather/Park HR Factor (12.4/20). Weakest real components: Recent Form Score (1.3/15), Command/Traffic Score (0/15).

Pick ConfidenceDo not play this prop
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Gavin Williams's own arsenal, next to MIN's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

Sweeper

5 real batters w/ sample

26.2%87.4 mph
0.244

4-Seam Fastball

5 real batters w/ sample

23.6%97 mph
0.253

Curveball

5 real batters w/ sample

22.4%82.7 mph
0.218

Sinker

5 real batters w/ sample

19.3%96.7 mph
0.264

Cutter

5 real batters w/ sample

8.5%92.3 mph
0.244

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Gavin Williams's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.206
OPS.653
K/911.20
WHIP1.03

20 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.261
OPS.791
K/910.89
WHIP1.40

20 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Gavin Williams's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1st.239.324.434.75810%31.7%180
2nd.224.289.382.6717.7%32.6%181
3rd.195.228.415.6434.1%23.6%123
4th+small sample1.0001.0001.0002.0000%0%2

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS -.115 · BA -.044 · K% -8.1%

This pitcher holds or improves the third time through (sample permitting). Based on 180 / 123 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30.229.308.435.7438.9%32.2%146
31–60.209.279.328.6078.8%34.5%148
61–75.280.341.560.9017.2%30.1%83
76+.198.234.377.6124.5%19.8%111

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
CLE · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026F
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Brooks Lee
MIN · 3B · LHB
Brooks Lee
Real career H2H · Lee vs Williams5 real games · 13 PA
12
AB
0
H
0
HR
1
BB
4
K
.000
AVG
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Williams
Stat
Lee
.226
67

BA

Batting average

93
.294
7.6%
68

BB%

Walk rate

81
11.7%
29.9%
91

K%

Strikeout rate

78
17.2%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

86
.341
—
39

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

72
—
—
70

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

56
—
—
80

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

45
—
—
2

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

20
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Progressive Field

Temperature

74°F

Wind

6 mph

Humidity

51%

Partly Cloudy, 74°F — no notable real weather impact expected.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.