SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Troy Melton

Troy Melton

RHP / RHB · Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Thu @ 6:41 PM

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Troy Melton

Troy Melton

PRHP / RHBStrikeouts 4.5C

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers · Thu @ 6:41 PM

Opp K Rank: 9th(21.3% K)

C🤏
Neutral
PrizePicksO -137DraftKings Pick6O -137
DET logoDET
ProbO 78%U 22%

Best O -137

Best U —

2 books ·PrizePicksDraftKings Pick6

Real Strikeouts Line · The Odds API

4.5
O -137U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 5.6, 9 GP ·PrizePicksDraftKings Pick6

Game Log — Strikeouts

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 9/9 games
Pick GradeC
Line 4.5
3
1
5
5
5
6
7
9
9
5/24@ BAL
5/29@ CWS
6/3@ TB
6/9vs MIN
6/20vs CWS
6/25vs HOU
7/1@ NYY
7/8vs ATH
7/17@ LAA

Dashed line = line 4.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

5.7
7
8
5
6
6
6.3
5.3
5.7
05-2405-2906-0306-0906-2006-2507-0107-0807-17
Line
App
Time
4.5
O -137PrizePicks
7/23, 11:33 AM
4.5
O -137DraftKings Pick6
7/23, 11:33 AM

Strikeouts 4.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over-137
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicksDraftKings Pick6

By App

PrizePicks4.5 O -1377/23, 11:33 AM
DraftKings Pick64.5 O -1377/23, 11:33 AM

Regular Season Averages

CGRADE
B72PARK-P
Slight lean — the real WIS components are close to a coin flipNeutral🤏Slight Lean· 60/100SWIS

Why this grade

SWIS (Strikeout Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Strikeouts Over 4.5 pick at 60/100 — 🤏 Slight Lean. Across the real full season sample, Troy has cleared the line in 78% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Recent Form Score (10.5/12), Workload & Opportunity Score (9.6/12), Pitcher Stuff & Whiff Score (22.9/30).

Pick ConfidenceNo clear edge either way
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Troy Melton's own arsenal, next to KC's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

4-Seam Fastball

8 real batters w/ sample

37.4%96.3 mph
0.235

Cutter

8 real batters w/ sample

20.5%92.2 mph
0.251

Slider

8 real batters w/ sample

18%86.5 mph
0.175

Sinker

8 real batters w/ sample

9.6%95.7 mph
0.297

Splitter

8 real batters w/ sample

9.1%88.7 mph
0.251

Curveball

8 real batters w/ sample

5.4%78.2 mph
0.251

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Troy Melton's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.151
OPS.622
K/97.12
WHIP0.96

9 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.193
OPS.472
K/99.75
WHIP0.79

9 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Troy Melton's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1st.192.272.329.6008.6%18.5%81
2nd.189.247.351.5986.2%24.7%81
3rdsmall sample.114.170.273.4436.4%29.8%47
4th+small sample.000.000.000.0000%33.3%3

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS -.157 · BA -.078 · K% +11.3%

This pitcher holds or improves the third time through (sample permitting). Based on 81 / 47 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30.211.297.386.6839.4%15.6%64
31–60.206.286.338.6249.1%23.4%77
61–75small sample.122.143.244.3872.4%26.2%42
76+small sample.129.182.323.5046.1%33.3%33

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Troy Melton
Troy Melton
DET · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026C
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Carter Jensen
KC · C · LHB
Carter Jensen
No real head-to-head at-bats yet between Jensen and Melton.
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Melton
Stat
Jensen
.170
93

BA

Batting average

52
.240
7.1%
74

BB%

Walk rate

58
9.1%
23.6%
64

K%

Strikeout rate

25
28.4%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

65
.303
—
87

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

12
—
—
63

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

72
—
—
59

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

28
—
—
67

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

60
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Comerica Park

Temperature

77°F

Wind

10 mph

Humidity

39%

Breezy at 10 mph.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.