SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Griffin Canning

Griffin Canning

RHP / RHB · San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

Thu @ 12:16 PM

4 prop types

Earned Runs4Hits Allowed3Pitcher Walks4Strikeouts6
Griffin Canning

Griffin Canning

PRHP / RHBHits Allowed 4.5C+

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves · Thu @ 12:16 PM

Opp K Rank: 8th(21.3% K)

C+🤏
Average
PrizePicksO +100
SD logoSD
ProbO 50%U 50%

Best O +100

Best U —

1 books ·PrizePicks

Real Hits Allowed Line · The Odds API

4.5
O +100U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 4.6, 14 GP ·PrizePicks

Real Alt Ladder3.54.56.5

Game Log — Hits Allowed

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 14/14 games
Pick GradeC+
Line 4.5
3
6
3
6
4
4
5
2
7
5
5/25vs PHI
5/31@ WSH
6/6vs NYM
6/12@ BAL
6/17@ STL
6/23vs ATL
6/29@ CHC
7/4@ LAD
7/9vs AZ
7/18@ KC

Dashed line = line 4.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

6.7
5
5
5
4.3
0.7
4.3
4
4.7
3.7
05-2505-3106-0606-1206-1706-2306-2907-0407-0907-18
Line
App
Time
4.5
O +100PrizePicks
7/23, 11:33 AM

Hits Allowed 4.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over+100
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicks

By App

PrizePicks4.5 O +1007/23, 11:33 AM

Regular Season Averages

C+GRADE
B-69PARK-P
Slight lean — the real WIS components are close to a coin flipAverage🤏Slight Lean· 62/100HAWIS

Why this grade

HAWIS (Hits Allowed Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Hits Allowed Over 4.5 pick at 62/100 — 🤏 Slight Lean. Across the real full season sample, Griffin has cleared the line in 50% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Handedness Matchup vs Lineup (11.7/15), Recent Opposing Pitchers vs Same Lineup (10.9/15), Opponent Lineup Contact Score (10.8/15). Weakest real components: Vegas/Line Value (2.5/5), Workload & Opportunity Score (0/10).

Pick ConfidenceNeutral data, fair value
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Griffin Canning's own arsenal, next to ATL's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

4-Seam Fastball

9 real batters w/ sample

25.9%94.4 mph
0.261

Slider

9 real batters w/ sample

24.4%87.4 mph
0.252

Changeup

9 real batters w/ sample

22.6%90 mph
0.248

Sinker

9 real batters w/ sample

10.8%93.6 mph
0.294

Cutter

9 real batters w/ sample

6.6%89.8 mph
0.296

Curveball

9 real batters w/ sample

5.8%81.3 mph
0.245

Sweeper

9 real batters w/ sample

3.9%86.3 mph
0.218

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Griffin Canning's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.316
OPS.940
K/99.00
WHIP1.91

14 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.228
OPS.628
K/99.36
WHIP1.32

14 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Griffin Canning's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1st.271.360.430.79012%23.2%125
2nd.276.355.378.7329.9%23.4%111
3rdsmall sample.348.483.7831.26520.7%13.8%29
4th+——————0

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS +.475 · BA +.077 · K% -9.4%

Hitters improve the third time through — classic fade signal when sample holds. Based on 125 / 29 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30.291.400.456.85614.7%21.1%95
31–60.269.343.398.7419.5%21%105
61–75small sample.262.311.381.6926.5%28.3%46
76+small sample.353.500.7651.26522.7%18.2%22

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Griffin Canning
Griffin Canning
SD · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026C+
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Drake Baldwin
ATL · C · LHB
Drake Baldwin
Real career H2H · Baldwin vs Canning1 real games · 1 PA
0
AB
0
H
0
HR
0
BB
0
K
.000
AVG
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Canning
Stat
Baldwin
.281
27

BA

Batting average

83
.275
12.1%
27

BB%

Walk rate

75
10.9%
22.3%
56

K%

Strikeout rate

61
21%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

67
.307
—
22

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

97
—
—
5

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

28
—
—
42

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

50
—
—
3

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

92
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Truist Park

Temperature

85°F

Wind

8 mph

Humidity

65%

Partly Cloudy, 85°F — no notable real weather impact expected.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.