SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber

RHP / RHB · Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Thu @ 3:08 PM

6 prop types

Earned Runs6Hits Allowed7Outs4Pitcher Fantasy Score3Pitcher Walks4Strikeouts7
Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber

PRHP / RHBOuts 17.5F

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays · Thu @ 3:08 PM

Opp K Rank: 1st(18.9% K)

F🚫
Avoid
PrizePicksO +100
TOR logoTOR
ProbO 20%U 80%

Best O +100

Best U —

1 books ·PrizePicks

Real Outs Line · The Odds API

17.5
O +100U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 14.2, 5 GP ·PrizePicks

Real Alt Ladder14.516.517.520.5

Game Log — Outs

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 5/5 games
Pick GradeF
Line 17.5
11
16
12
14
18
6/23vs HOU
6/28vs TEX
7/4@ SEA
7/10@ SD
7/18vs CWS

Dashed line = line 17.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

3.7
5.3
4
4.7
6
06-2306-2807-0407-1007-18
Line
App
Time
17.5
O +100PrizePicks
7/23, 11:33 AM

Outs 17.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over+100
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicks

By App

PrizePicks17.5 O +1007/23, 11:33 AM

Regular Season Averages

FGRADE
B-67PARK-P
Avoid — the real WIS breakdown leans against this sideAvoid🚫Avoid· 25/100OUTWIS

Why this grade

OUTWIS (Outs Recorded Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Outs Over 17.5 pick at 25/100 — 🚫 Avoid. Across the real full season sample, Shane has cleared the line in 20% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Team Bullpen Fatigue/Usage Score (7.5/15), Vegas/Line Value (2.5/5), Opponent Pace / Aggressiveness Score (3.3/10). Weakest real components: Opponent Offensive Quality vs Handedness (0.6/10), Pitcher Efficiency Profile (0/30).

Pick ConfidenceDo not play this prop
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Shane Bieber's own arsenal, next to TB's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

4-Seam Fastball

9 real batters w/ sample

35.6%92.2 mph
0.246

Changeup

9 real batters w/ sample

21.2%88.1 mph
0.250

Curveball

9 real batters w/ sample

19.2%82.8 mph
0.255

Cutter

9 real batters w/ sample

13.4%87.4 mph
0.280

Slider

9 real batters w/ sample

9.5%84.9 mph
0.248

Sinker

9 real batters w/ sample

1.2%92.6 mph
0.338

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Shane Bieber's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.208
OPS.812
K/97.62
WHIP1.46

5 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.396
OPS1.139
K/96.75
WHIP2.06

5 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Shane Bieber's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1stsmall sample.341.400.585.9858.9%17.8%45
2ndsmall sample.275.356.6501.00611.1%13.3%45
3rdsmall sample.267.389.467.85616.7%27.8%18
4th+——————0

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS -.129 · BA -.074 · K% +10%

This pitcher holds or improves the third time through (sample permitting). Based on 45 / 18 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30small sample.267.353.567.92011.8%20.6%34
31–60small sample.378.452.8111.26311.9%7.1%42
61–75small sample.211.286.211.4969.5%23.8%21
76+small sample.250.357.500.85714.3%28.6%14

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
TOR · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026F
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PredictedYandy Díaz
TB · DH · RHB
Yandy Díaz
Real career H2H · Díaz vs Bieber2 real games · 7 PA
6
AB
1
H
0
HR
1
BB
2
K
.167
AVG
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Bieber
Stat
Díaz
.302
18

BA

Batting average

96
.308
11.1%
32

BB%

Walk rate

58
9.1%
17.6%
30

K%

Strikeout rate

90
13.8%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

83
.332
—
0

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

88
—
—
0

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

64
—
—
0

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

94
—
—
0

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

83
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Rogers Centre

Temperature

69°F

Wind

11 mph

Humidity

67%

Retractable roof (open/closed status isn't available from a free source, so treat this as the outdoor forecast only). Breezy at 11 mph.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.