SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•
SD@ATLThu @ 12:16 PM•
MIN@CLEThu @ 1:11 PM•
TB@TORThu @ 3:08 PM•
AZ@STLThu @ 5:16 PM•
KC@DETThu @ 6:41 PM•

Players

Troy Melton

Troy Melton

RHP / RHB · Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Thu @ 6:41 PM

6 prop types

Earned Runs5Hits Allowed7Outs3Pitcher Fantasy Score3Pitcher Walks4Strikeouts7
Troy Melton

Troy Melton

PRHP / RHBEarned Runs 2.5F

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers · Thu @ 6:41 PM

Opp K Rank: 9th(21.3% K)

F🚫
Avoid
PrizePicksO +100
DET logoDET
ProbO 11%U 89%

Best O +100

Best U —

1 books ·PrizePicks

Real Earned Runs Line · The Odds API

2.5
O +100U —

Real DFS line · Season avg 1.2, 9 GP ·PrizePicks

Real Alt Ladder0.51.52.53.55.5

Game Log — Earned Runs

MLB StatsAPI · filtered 9/9 games
Pick GradeF
Line 2.5
1
1
2
4
1
1
0
0
1
5/24@ BAL
5/29@ CWS
6/3@ TB
6/9vs MIN
6/20vs CWS
6/25vs HOU
7/1@ NYY
7/8vs ATH
7/17@ LAA

Dashed line = line 2.5 · green = over · red = under · viewing L10

Supporting Stats

Real per-game MLB StatsAPI boxscore fields — tap a stat to feature it · matching active filters

5.7
7
8
5
6
6
6.3
5.3
5.7
05-2405-2906-0306-0906-2006-2507-0107-0807-17
Line
App
Time
2.5
O +100PrizePicks
7/23, 11:33 AM

Earned Runs 2.5 · DFS Odds

Best Over+100
Best Under—
Books quoting
PrizePicks

By App

PrizePicks2.5 O +1007/23, 11:33 AM

Regular Season Averages

FGRADE
B72PARK-P
Avoid — the real WIS breakdown leans against this sideAvoid🚫Avoid· 25/100ERWIS

Why this grade

ERWIS (Earned Run Wizard Intelligence Score) grades this Earned Runs Over 2.5 pick at 25/100 — 🚫 Avoid. Across the real full season sample, Troy has cleared the line in 11% of the real games in that window. Strongest real components: Workload & Opportunity Score (7.2/10), Weather/Park HR Factor (12.4/20), Vegas/Line Value (2.5/5). Weakest real components: Command/Traffic Score (1.6/15), Recent Form Score (1.3/15).

Pick ConfidenceDo not play this prop
FDCBA+
Deterministic grade from real hit rates, streaks, odds & H2H — updates instantly with your filters

Pitch Arsenal vs. Tonight's Lineup

Real Statcast usage/velo for Troy Melton's own arsenal, next to KC's real weighted-average line against each exact pitch type.

PitchUsage / VeloOpp Lineup

4-Seam Fastball

9 real batters w/ sample

37.4%96.3 mph
0.234

Cutter

9 real batters w/ sample

20.5%92.2 mph
0.253

Slider

9 real batters w/ sample

18%86.5 mph
0.176

Sinker

9 real batters w/ sample

9.6%95.7 mph
0.297

Splitter

9 real batters w/ sample

9.1%88.7 mph
0.253

Curveball

9 real batters w/ sample

5.4%78.2 mph
0.253

Opp Lineup = real PA-weighted average BA of tonight's real confirmed opposing batters against this exact real pitch type (Baseball Savant pitch-arsenal leaderboard) — greener = tougher real matchup for that lineup on that pitch, redder = the real lineup hits it well. Only real pitch types with at least one real batter sample are shown.

Averages vs Righty & Lefty

Troy Melton's real 2026 season splits facing each pitcher hand.

vs LHB

BAA.151
OPS.622
K/97.12
WHIP0.96

9 G real sample

vs RHB

BAA.193
OPS.472
K/99.75
WHIP0.79

9 G real sample

Times Through the Order

Troy Melton's 2026results by how many times they've faced the lineup in a game (not innings). Savant Statcast · PA under 50 flagged.

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1st.192.272.329.6008.6%18.5%81
2nd.189.247.351.5986.2%24.7%81
3rdsmall sample.114.170.273.4436.4%29.8%47
4th+small sample.000.000.000.0000%33.3%3

1st → 3rd TTO penalty

OPS -.157 · BA -.078 · K% +11.3%

This pitcher holds or improves the third time through (sample permitting). Based on 81 / 47 PA.

By pitch count

Fatigue complement — MLB StatsAPI pitch-count buckets (combined to 1–30 / 31–60 / 61–75 / 76+).

SplitBAOBPSLGOPSBB%K%PA
1–30.211.297.386.6839.4%15.6%64
31–60.206.286.338.6249.1%23.4%77
61–75small sample.122.143.244.3872.4%26.2%42
76+small sample.129.182.323.5046.1%33.3%33

Matchup Analyzer

Simple version: each row lines up the real starting pitcher against the real opposing batter on one stat. The number in the circle is that player's real 2026 rank out of 99 compared to every other MLB player — so 70means they're better than about 70% of the league at that stat. Hover the next to any stat for a plain-English explanation.
Green = elite (60+ percentile) Grey = average (36-59) Red = weak (35 or below)
Troy Melton
Troy Melton
DET · SP · RHP
REAL MATCHUP · 2026F
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
PredictedCarter Jensen
KC · C · LHB
Carter Jensen
No real head-to-head at-bats yet between Jensen and Melton.
Percentile rankings
Pitcher Hand Split
Batter Hand Split
Melton
Stat
Jensen
.170
93

BA

Batting average

52
.240
7.1%
74

BB%

Walk rate

58
9.1%
23.6%
64

K%

Strikeout rate

25
28.4%
—

BABIP

Luck on balls in play

65
.303
—
87

xwOBA

Overall offensive quality (season)

12
—
—
63

Chase%

Swings at pitches outside the zone (season)

72
—
—
59

Whiff%

Swings that miss entirely (season)

28
—
—
67

Hard-Hit%

Balls hit 95+ mph (season)

60
—

MLB StatsAPI + Baseball Savant · 2026 season · true league percentile rank

Weather Impact

Comerica Park

Temperature

77°F

Wind

10 mph

Humidity

39%

Breezy at 10 mph.

Real forecast for this venue's real coordinates at the real scheduled first pitch (Open-Meteo) — not a book-guaranteed in-game reading.