Measured on 353 real fighter-fights: a fighter's OWN ground share barely predicts his rate (R² 0.026, and the slope is positive — high ground share means he is the man on top). What actually suppresses output is the other man's control time, from 5.77 strikes a minute when barely controlled down to 2.97 when dominated. That fitted curve is what moves every number on this page.
Bout simulator
At least one fighter has no logged bout with position data, so this projection is the UFC baseline rather than a read on this matchup.
His opponent has no logged cage time, so there is no grappling load to project — this is the blended career projection, unadjusted. Only 0 logged bouts, so his own rate is pulled toward the UFC average.
His opponent has no logged cage time, so there is no grappling load to project — this is the blended career projection, unadjusted. Only 1 logged bout, so his own rate is pulled toward the UFC average.
Fighter stats and position splits from ESPN, baked 9/21/2026, 12:12:38 PM. Lines from ParlayAPI. No live calls are made when this page renders.
